But Is It Myopia? Risk Aversion and the Efficiency of Stock-Based Managerial Incentives

This paper points out that stock incentives do not lead to myopia unless they result in more emphasis on the short-term than would occur under an optimal contract. It shows that myopia findings relative to the standard used throughout the literature (first-best efficiency) are often reversed when evaluated relative to the relevant standard of optimal contracting. Results reported by the previous literature to be myopia often in fact have excessive emphasis on the long-term. The paper solves in closed-form for the region in parameter space which gives rise to these reversals and shows that it can be arbitrarily largehttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49369/5/2008Jan16JCarmel.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49369/1/Visiting-Carmel.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49369/4/Visiting-Carmel.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49369/7/1108_2008Jan16JCarmel.pd

The impact of a social norms approach onreducing levels of misperceptions aroundsmokefree hospital entrances amongstpatients, staff, and visitors of a NHShospital: a repeated cross-sectional surveystudy

Background: Smoking is a cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality. In the United Kingdom (UK) the national smoking ban inside hospital buildings is widely adhered to. There is a perception it has led to smokers congregating around hospital entrances (Selbie D. 2016, It’s time for a truly smokefree NHS. Public Health Matters Blog. Public Health England). Efforts to shift social norms and create positive smokefree environments might be strengthened by delivering social norms messages. This study explored the impact of a social norms approach campaign to reduce levels of misperceptions surrounding support for smokefree hospital entrances. Method: Repeated cross sectional study design. Staff, patients, and hospital visitors at Pinderfields National Health Service (NHS) Hospital (Wakefield, United Kingdom (UK)) completed a survey before and after implementation of a public health social norms campaign (n = 481 surveyed before; n = 459 surveyed after). The main outcome measure was difference between perceived and reported levels of support for smokefree hospital entrances. Results: There were high levels of support for smokefree hospital entrances. The majority of participants agreed that patients (n = 849, 90% agreed), staff (n = 863, 92% agreed), and visitors (n = 850, 90% agreed) should not smoke in the hospital entrance. Participants underestimated the proportion of others who self-reported keeping the entrance smokefree. Over 90% of respondents reported not smoking in the hospital entrance, but the perception was that between 50 to 75% of hospital staff, patients, and visitors did not smoke in the hospital entrance. The mean percentage of hospital staff, patients, and visitors who respondents thought did not smoke in entrances was higher for respondents responding after, compared to those responding before, the campaign. There was an overall significant effect of time on attitudes towards smoking in the entrances; in all instances the mean percentage of hospital staff, patients, and visitors the participants believed agreed that hospital entrances should be smokefree was higher for those responding after, compared with before, the campaign. Conclusions: People hold misperceptions of the proportion of people who choose to smoke in the hospital entrance. The social norms approach campaign was associated with a strengthening of positive social norms. Such campaigns should be considered by Trusts as one evidence-based based tactic to denormalise smoking, increase support for smokefree policies

A cluster randomised controlled trial of a web based decision aid to support parents' decisions about their child's Measles Mumps and Rubella (MMR) vaccination.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a web based decision aid versus a leaflet versus, usual practice in reducing parents' decisional conflict for the first dose MMR vaccination decision. The, impact on MMR vaccine uptake was also explored. DESIGN: Three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Fifty GP practices in the north of, England. PARTICIPANTS: 220 first time parents making a first dose MMR decision. INTERVENTIONS: Web, based MMR decision aid plus usual practice, MMR leaflet plus usual practice versus usual practice only, (control). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Decisional conflict was the primary outcome and used as the, measure of parents' levels of informed decision-making. MMR uptake was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Decisional conflict decreased post-intervention for both intervention arms to a level where, parents could make an informed MMR decision (decision aid: effect estimate=1.09, 95% CI -1.36 to -0.82; information leaflet: effect estimate=-0.67, 95% CI -0.88 to -0.46). Trial arm was significantly, associated (p<0.001) with decisional conflict at post-intervention. Vaccination uptake was 100%, 91%, and 99% in the decision aid, leaflet and control arms, respectively (χ(2) (1, N=203)=8.69; p=0.017). Post-hoc tests revealed a statistically significant difference in uptake between the information leaflet, and the usual practice arms (p=0.04), and a near statistically significant difference between the, decision aid and leaflet arms (p=0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Parents' decisional conflict was reduced in both, the decision aid and leaflet arms. The decision aid also prompted parents to act upon that decision and, vaccinate their child. Achieving both outcomes is fundamental to the integration of immunisation, decision aids within routine practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN72521372

Do incentives, reminders or reduced burden improve healthcare professional response rates in postal questionnaires?:Two randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Healthcare professional response rates to postal questionnaires are declining and this may threaten the validity and generalisability of their findings. Methods to improve response rates do incur costs (resources) and increase the cost of research projects. The aim of these randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was to assess whether 1) incentives, 2) type of reminder and/or 3) reduced response burden improve response rates; and to assess the cost implications of such additional effective interventions. METHODS: Two RCTs were conducted. In RCT A general dental practitioners (dentists) in Scotland were randomised to receive either an incentive; an abridged questionnaire or a full length questionnaire. In RCT B non-responders to a postal questionnaire sent to general medical practitioners (GPs) in the UK were firstly randomised to receive a second full length questionnaire as a reminder or a postcard reminder. Continued non-responders from RCT B were then randomised within their first randomisation to receive a third full length or an abridged questionnaire reminder. The cost-effectiveness of interventions that effectively increased response rates was assessed as a secondary outcome. RESULTS: There was no evidence that an incentive (52% versus 43%, Risk Difference (RD) -8.8 (95%CI −22.5, 4.8); or abridged questionnaire (46% versus 43%, RD −2.9 (95%CI −16.5, 10.7); statistically significantly improved dentist response rates compared to a full length questionnaire in RCT A. In RCT B there was no evidence that a full questionnaire reminder statistically significantly improved response rates compared to a postcard reminder (10.4% versus 7.3%, RD 3 (95%CI −0.1, 6.8). At a second reminder stage, GPs sent the abridged questionnaire responded more often (14.8% versus 7.2%, RD −7.7 (95%CI −12.8, -2.6). GPs who received a postcard reminder followed by an abridged questionnaire were most likely to respond (19.8% versus 6.3%, RD 8.1%, and 9.1% for full/postcard/full, three full or full/full/abridged questionnaire respectively). An abridged questionnaire containing fewer questions following a postcard reminder was the only cost-effective strategy for increasing the response rate (£15.99 per response). CONCLUSIONS: When expecting or facing a low response rate to postal questionnaires, researchers should carefully identify the most efficient way to boost their response rate. In these studies, an abridged questionnaire containing fewer questions following a postcard reminder was the only cost-effective strategy. An increase in response rates may be explained by a combination of the number and type of contacts. Increasing the sampling frame may be more cost-effective than interventions to prompt non-responders. However, this may not strengthen the validity and generalisability of the survey findings and affect the representativeness of the sample

MS Sunshine Study: Sun Exposure But Not Vitamin D Is Associated with Multiple Sclerosis Risk in Blacks and Hispanics

Multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels vary by race/ethnicity. We examined the consistency of beneficial effects of 25OHD and/or sun exposure for MS risk across multiple racial/ethnic groups. We recruited incident MS cases and controls (blacks 116 cases/131 controls; Hispanics 183/197; whites 247/267) from the membership of Kaiser Permanente Southern California into the MS Sunshine Study to simultaneously examine sun exposure and 25OHD, accounting for genetic ancestry and other factors. Higher lifetime ultraviolet radiation exposure (a rigorous measure of sun exposure) was associated with a lower risk of MS independent of serum 25OHD levels in blacks (adjusted OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.31-0.83; p = 0.007) and whites (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.48-0.94; p = 0.020) with a similar magnitude of effect that did not reach statistical significance in Hispanics (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.42-1.04; p = 0.071). Higher serum 25OHD levels were associated with a lower risk of MS only in whites. No association was found in Hispanics or blacks regardless of how 25OHD was modeled. Lifetime sun exposure appears to reduce the risk of MS regardless of race/ethnicity. In contrast, serum 25OHD levels are not associated with MS risk in blacks or Hispanics. Our findings challenge the biological plausibility of vitamin D deficiency as causal for MS and call into question the targeting of specific serum 25OHD levels to achieve health benefits, particularly in blacks and Hispanics

Vitamin D-Binding Protein Polymorphisms, 25-Hydroxyvitamin D, Sunshine and Multiple Sclerosis

Blacks have different dominant polymorphisms in the vitamin D-binding protein (DBP) gene that result in higher bioavailable vitamin D than whites. This study tested whether the lack of association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) risk in blacks and Hispanics is due to differences in these common polymorphisms (rs7041, rs4588). We recruited incident MS cases and controls (blacks 116 cases/131 controls; Hispanics 183/197; whites 247/267) from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. AA is the dominant rs7041 genotype in blacks (70.0%) whereas C is the dominant allele in whites (79.0% AC/CC) and Hispanics (77.1%). Higher 25OHD levels were associated with a lower risk of MS in whites who carried at least one copy of the C allele but not AA carriers. No association was found in Hispanics or blacks regardless of genotype. Higher ultraviolet radiation exposure was associated with a lower risk of MS in blacks (OR = 0.06), Hispanics and whites who carried at least one copy of the C allele but not in others. Racial/ethnic variations in bioavailable vitamin D do not explain the lack of association between 25OHD and MS in blacks and Hispanics. These findings further challenge the biological plausibility of vitamin D deficiency as causal for MS

Incomplete Contracts with Asymmetric Information: Exclusive v. Optional Remedies

Law and economics scholars have always had a strong interest in contract remedies. Perhaps the most explored issue in contract law has been the desirability of various contract remedies, such as expectation damages, specific performance, or liquidated damages, to name the most common. Scholars have been debating for years, from various perspectives, the comparative advantage of these remedies. Yet, most scholars have assumed that each of these remedies is exclusive, and their work has compared a single remedy contract to another single remedy contract. Interestingly, an analysis that assumes these remedies are optional (or cumulative) has not yet been explored, in spite of the fact that contract law provides the non-breaching party with a variety of optional remedies to choose from in case of a breach, and in spite of the fact that parties themselves write contracts which provide such an option. In this paper we attempt to start filling in this gap by studying the relationship between these remedies. Specifically, we study the conditions at which a contract that grants the non-breaching party an option to choose from optional remedies is superior to an exclusive remedy contract. We show that under conditions of double-sided uncertainty and asymmetric information between a seller (who might breach) and a buyer (who never breaches) the interaction of the parties\u27 distributions should determine whether a contract provides for exclusive or optional remedies. Specifically, if the buyer\u27s conditional expected valuation is larger than the seller\u27s conditional expected valuation (in both cases - conditional that their expected valuation is above the buyer\u27s mean valuation), then a contract which provides the buyer an option to choose between liquidated damages or specific performance (or actual damages) is superior. Our analysis in this paper informs transactional lawyers of the relevant economic factors they should consider when deciding the optimal composition of remedies in a given context. Moreover, our analysis is relevant for courts that interpret contracts because it will help them to better understand whether rational parties would have agreed that a particular remedy would be an exclusive remedy or an optional remedy when the language of the contract is ambiguous. Lastly, our analysis provides yet another economic rationale for why courts should enforce parties\u27 liquidated damages clauses even if it seems ex-post over, or under, compensatory. We present a model which shows when parties will agree on a non-exclusive liquidated damages clause. Under such a contract the parties stipulate ex-ante that the buyer will have the option to choose upon breach whether she prefers an optional remedy, such as actual damages or specific performance, to the pre-determined liquidated damages. We focus on the ex-ante design of the contract in light of the new information that the parties anticipate they will gain after they draft the contract. Therefore, we assume that no renegotiation or investments are involved. We demonstrate the optimal way to design contract clauses which takes advantage of the information that the seller and the buyer receive between the time they enter into the contract and the time of the actual breach. We further suggest that parties indeed use such clauses and that courts honor them. After laying out the basic model we provide some extensions to it. As is well known, an exclusive liquidated damages contract is equivalent to granting the seller a call option to breach and pay, where the exercise price is equal to the amount of the agreed liquidated damages. What is perhaps less known is that a non-exclusive, or optional, contract, where the buyer can choose performance, is equivalent to giving the buyer a consecutive call option with the same exercise price. Yet, the consecutive call option to the buyer does not have to have the same exercise price but can rather have a higher one. We call this new contract a two-price contract and show that it is even more efficient than the basic contract we have explored before. Next, we introduce more rounds of sequential options and show that while the regular ex-ante contract can achieve on average about 4 Indeed, in an environment of asymmetric information renegotiation costs are high. More on this below. 90% of the first-best allocative efficiency, an n-rounds contract approaches the first best, as n goes to infinity. We show numerically that within just 4 rounds, 96% of the allocative efficiency can be achieved. Section two describes the legal background against which we have designed our model. Section three surveys the literature that evaluates contract remedies from an economic perspective. Section four presents a simple model with two-sided incomplete information and with a liquidated damages clause. In section four we compare the performance of a regime with optional remedies with a regime of exclusive remedy and then determine the conditions at which each regime should be applied. Section five discusses some interesting extensions meant to approach the first-best allocative efficiency. The appendix provides a more rigorous mathematical demonstration of the model

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA profiles among chronic HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals in ESPRIT; spontaneous HCV RNA clearance observed in nine individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Studies have shown that hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels remain stable over time in HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), while spontaneous clearance of HCV RNA during the persistent infection phase has been documented only rarely among those with the CC interleukin (IL)-28B genotype. This study describes HCV RNA profiles and factors associated with changes over time in HCV RNA levels in the ESPRIT study. METHODS: HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals positive for HCV RNA were included in the study. Follow-up was counted from the first HCV RNA positive test and censored at the initiation of interferon-based treatment. HCV RNA and IL-28B measurements were performed in the same reference laboratory. Random effects mixed models were used to analyse changes over time in HCV RNA. RESULTS: A total of 312 ESPRIT patients were included in the study (151 in the arm receiving subcutaneous recombinant IL-2 and 161 in the control arm). Most of the patients were white (89%) and male (76%), and they had a median of 5 HCV RNA measurements per person [interquartile range (IQR) 3-6; range 1-9]. Median follow-up was 5 years (IQR: 2-6 years). At baseline, 96% of patients were taking cART and 93% had undetectable HIV RNA. Mean HCV RNA levels decreased by 13% per year over the study period [95% confidence interval (CI) 8-18%; P < 0.0001]. Baseline HCV RNA levels and the change over time in HCV RNA did not differ by randomization arm (P = 0.16 and P = 0.56, respectively). Nine individuals spontaneously cleared HCV RNA during follow-up [IL-28B genotypes: CC, five patients (56%); CT, four patients (44%)]. CONCLUSIONS: HCV RNA levels decreased over time in this population with well-controlled HIV infection. Spontaneous clearance of HCV RNA was documented in five individuals with IL-28B genotype CC and four with the CT genotype